BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage underlines a notable break in traditional correlations between the Dollar, Oil and equities as investors navigate the Iran conflict and central bank meetings. He suggests markets may be positioning for a bottom into quarter-end and that the Oil/Gold ratio has become a key barometer for USD as leverage unwinds.

Dollar links to risk assets evolve

"There is one break in correlation that looks important to investors as they embark on the “lucky” week of central bank decisions and St. Patrick’s Day celebrations."

"The USD and the dollar/oil link look different. So too does the link between USD and equities."

"Investors could be shifting gears waiting for clarity over the duration of the war, but they also could be trading for a bottoming out into quarter-end."

"The one barometer that looks to be in play is oil/gold; after peaking at 86 barrels of oil to 1 oz of gold, this measure is now below 50. Watch for its effect on USD as the leverage unwind continues. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)