TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects weaker US Retail Sales for December, projecting a 0.2% monthly decline in the headline and 0.1% for the control group, versus stronger market consensus. They note that softer auto and gas components and credit card data point to moderation, while resilient restaurant spending underpins services demand. Markets may react via curve bull steepening.

Retail Sales seen undershooting consensus

"On Tuesday, all focus will be on retail sales, where we expect a below consensus headline and control group print of -0.2% m/m and 0.1% m/m, respectively."

"We expect retail sales to decline 0.2% m/m in December as volatile auto and gas station sales give back some of their November strength (consensus: 0.4%). Credit card data also suggest control group sales moderated to 0.1% m/m (consensus: 0.5%). A likely gain in restaurant outlays points to resilient services spending at the end of the year."

"While we are likely to see a bull steepening if retail sales are weak, markets are likely to be more focused on NFP on Wednesday."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)