When is the Eurozone flash HICP data for February and how could it affect EUR/USD?

Eurozone flash HICP Overview

The Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for February is scheduled to be published today at 10:00 GMT.

According to preliminary estimates, Eurostat will show that both the headline and core HICP – which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – grew at a steady pace of 1.7% and 2.2% Year-on-Year (YoY), respectively.

The Eurozone headline HICP has cooled down in the last two months from 2.1% YoY in November. Therefore, signs of further slowdown in the HICP growth rate could prompt dovish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. On the contrary, soft or higher-than-expected figures are unlikely to bring a dramatic change in the ECB's monetary policy expectations.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said in her statement before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament on February 26 that she is confident about inflation stabilizing at the central bank’s 2% target in the medium term and retained a data-dependent approach. Lagarde said, “I am really convinced that we should maintain data dependent approach.”

How could Eurozone inflation data affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD trades 0.2% lower at around 1.1667 ahead of the Eurozone inflation data release. The near-term bias is bearish as the pair trades below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA, which is near 1.1788.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sliding below 40.00 signals the onset of bearish momentum, pointing to room for further downside extension before selling pressure becomes exhausted.

Initial support stands at the rising support trend line around 1.1640 that had guided the advance from 1.1468. The scenario of a trend-line break would expose the price to a deeper pullback toward 1.1600. On the upside, immediate resistance emerges at the February 19 low of 1.1742, followed by the 20-day EMA around 1.1788. A further break above the average would strengthen the odds of further upside toward 1.1820

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.