印尼央行(BI)优先考虑外汇稳定而非增长 – BNY
BNY 分析师预计印度尼西亚银行(BI)将在 2 月 19 日将政策利率维持在 4.75% 不变,并保持宽松偏向,但进一步降息的门槛较高

BNY 分析师预计印度尼西亚央行(BI)将在 4.75%(2 月 19 日)维持政策利率不变,并保持宽松偏向,但进一步降息的门槛较高。该行强调 BI 从“全面支持增长”的立场转向对印尼盾稳定的关注,包括潜在的大规模外汇干预。高企的贷款利率和镍产量削减等行政措施支持货币估值。

维持利率不变的 BI 关注外汇稳定

“我们预计印度尼西亚央行将维持政策利率在 4.75% 不变。”

“虽然 BI 可能会保持宽松偏向,但进一步降息的门槛依然较高。”

“值得注意的是,最近的沟通中已不再提及‘全面支持增长’的立场,而是更加强调印尼盾的稳定,包括非常大规模外汇干预的可能性(与之前提到的‘大胆’干预相比)。”

“预计 BI 将继续在当地资产持续波动的情况下保持警惕。”

“然而,这样的举措可以被视为支持货币估值的另一种工具——一种行政措施而非直接干预——其影响需要时间才能显现,且通常最初会被忽视。”

(本文由人工智能工具生成,并经过编辑审核。)

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