ICE Brent edged higher yesterday, breaking back above $68/bbl and settling just shy of 1% higher on the day. Yet the upward move came amid thin volumes due to the Labour Day holiday in the US, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

OPEC+ might decide to reinstate supply cuts

"The market’s attention will be increasingly turning to the OPEC+ meeting this weekend. We believe, just like the broader market, that the group will leave production levels unchanged for October."

"This follows OPEC+ unwinding its 2.2m b/d of additional voluntary supply cuts over the last 6 months. The scale of the surplus through next year means it’s unlikely the group will bring additional supply onto the market. The bigger risk is OPEC+ deciding to reinstate supply cuts, given concerns about a surplus."

"In Brazil, domestic media reports suggest that the US government is looking to prepare new measures, including trade curbs due to its imports of Russian diesel. Since the EU ban on Russian refined products, Brazil has become a key buyer of Russian diesel. According to LSEG data, Brazilian imports of diesel from Russia have averaged a little over 590kt per month so far this year."