Since both the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the Australian Dollar (AUD) have links to commodities, historically they have been viewed as ‘risky’ currencies which tend to rally when growth prospects are strong and vice-versa, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports.

Commodity exports cushion downside risk for AUD and NZD

"The evolving and complex geopolitical backdrop has the potential to skew that relationship. In addition to its gold exports, Australia is a growing source for rare earths and both countries benefitted from solid food exports in 2025 – the latter potentially being subject to more inelastic demand than other commodities (dependent on geopolitics)."

"That said, the broader global growth environment will likely remain an influence for both currencies. For now we see risk that both the RBA and the RBNZ will push back against rate hike speculation. The RBA’s next policy meeting is scheduled for February 3 and a less hawkish than expected message may also trigger headwinds for the NZD in addition to the AUD."

"The next RBNZ meeting is scheduled for February 18. Consequently, we see scope for dips in both AUD/USD and NZD/USD in the coming weeks. That said, we would view a move back to AUD/USD0.66 and NZD/USD0.57 as buying opportunities and look for both currency pairs to tick higher into the middle of the year."