AUD/JPY declines below 106.50 on safe-haven flows, Australian employment data in focus

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The AUD/JPY cross loses traction to around 106.45 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders pile into safe-haven currencies amid US President Donald Trump's renewed tariff threats.

AUD/JPY softens to near 106.45 in Wednesday’s early European session.
Trump's renewed tariff threats against European allies over Greenland lift the Japanese Yen, a safe-haven currency.
The Australian employment report for December will take center stage later on Thursday.

Over the weekend, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European nations that oppose his plans to take control of Greenland. It would rise to 25% if an agreement is not reached by June 1. The US President is scheduled to talk about Greenland in Davos on Wednesday. Fears of a major US-EU trade war could boost the safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese Yen and create a headwind for the cross in the near term.

On the other hand, concerns about Japan's fiscal position might cap the upside for the JPY. Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Monday called snap elections for February 8 and pledged a wave of measures to loosen fiscal policy. Takaichi’s plans to cut taxes and boost spending are raising doubts about the financial health of Japan.

Traders will take more cues from the Australian employment data on Friday. The Unemployment Rate is expected to tick up to 4.4% in December from 4.3% in November. Employment Change is projected to show 30K job gains during the same period. Any signs of an improving Australian labor market could help limit the Aussie’s losses in the near term.

Australian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

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