The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has urged the government to impose strict controls on new copper smelting projects, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Copper prices under pressure as China curbs smelting

"This was largely due to strict competition that has pushed processing fees to record lows, putting severe pressure on the industry. In response, relevant Chinese government departments are accelerating efforts to draft new regulations aimed at having better control over copper smelting capacity. Additionally, ore supply is tightening, worsened by recent disruptions like the shutdown of Freeport-McMoRan’s Indonesian mine after a fatal accident."

"Meanwhile, recent reports suggest that Peru’s massive Antamina mine is set to increase copper production by around 20% to 450kt in 2026 and aims at around 400kt annually in the following years. If achieved, Antamina could overtake Freeport-McMoran’s Cerro Verde and MMG Ltd’s Los Bambas, positioning itself as one of the country’s top copper producers."

"The projected increase is largely driven by a planned expansion to replenish ore at the current pit. Meanwhile, copper output from the mine for the year is expected to reach around 380kt."