After briefly dipping below 0.92 last month, EUR/CHF has trended higher, supported by Switzerland’s strong economic fundamentals. Despite high tariffs hitting the Swiss economy, its safe-haven status and resilient current account position suggest EUR/CHF will remain near 0.92-0.93, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports.
Swiss fundamentals support safe-haven appeal
"Having briefly dipped below EUR/CH0.92 last month following news of the US/Swiss trade deal, the currency pair trended higher. It is not clear if this move was guided by SNB intervention."
"Despite the hit to the Swiss economy from high tariffs in recent months, Switzerland regularly performs well on global productivity tables and maintains a strong budget and current account position. These fundamentals strengthen its safe haven status and, while disruption from Trump’s policies has not been as large as expected this year, reasons to diversify from the ‘buy America’ trade that dominated between the GFC and 2024 remain in place."
"We expect EUR/CHF to remain in the 0.92-0.93 area in the coming months and have lowered our 3-month forecast for 0.93 to 0.92 to reflect this view."
