The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep its policy rate at 6.50% for a 14th straight meeting, maintaining a hawkish stance as inflation remains above target. Strong real interest rates, a fiscal expansion plan for 2026, and a current account surplus continue to support the forint, BBH FX analysts report.
Inflation guidance to remain above target band
"National Bank of Hungary is widely expected to keep rates steady at 6.50% for a 14th consecutive meeting (1:00pm London, 8:00am New York). The bank should also reiterate that 'For the rest of the year, inflation is expected to stay above the central bank tolerance band [3% +/-1%]'."
"The swaps market price-in 60bps of cuts over the next two years. Regardless, Hungary’s positive real interest rates, loose 2026 fiscal stance, and current account surplus (1.9% of GDP in Q2) favor a firmer HUF."
