Fed policymaker Stephen Miran stressed the importance of forward-looking analysis in shaping monetary policy. He highlighted housing costs as central to inflation dynamics, signalled expectations of easing shelter pressures, and warned that relying on backward-looking data could misguide the policy debate.
Key Quotes
Access to data is important to making policy.
Hopefully the Fed will have needed data by the next FOMC.
Fed policy should be forward-looking.
The cost of housing is paramount in thinking.
Expecting significant disinflation to services inflation tied to population shift.
The neutral rate has come down to the bottom end of estimates.
Deregulation of the economy will expand the economy's potential.
Estimates of a low neutral rate are based on forward-looking assessments.
Using backward-looking data is misguided.
Small changes in measured inflation are difficult for households to detect.
Inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored.
The public expects to see the Fed achieve low inflation.
Financial conditions matter to monetary policy transmission.
Even though financial conditions are loose, policy is tight due to the neutral rate moving down.
Financial conditions may not give a good read for Fed policy.
Expectation on easing services inflation is tied to housing factors.
Expects shelter inflation to ease going forward.
Would update policy view if the case for easing shelter inflation did not happen.
Demand elasticity allows Americans to shift to manage tariffs.
Not seeing a broad-based inflation increase on tariffs.
