Trade The World
GBP: Some risk premium is building – ING
By FXStreet Insights Team
Date Published: 2 Oct 2025 | Date Modified: 2 Oct 2025
POPULAR ARTICLES
EUR/GBP corrected lower on some EUR long squeezing yesterday, but seems to be lacking bearish momentum to trade back to 0.860, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/GBP corrected lower on some EUR long squeezing yesterday, but seems to be lacking bearish momentum to trade back to 0.860, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Risks mostly lie on the upside for EUR/GBP
"Our model has recorded two consecutive weeks of around 1% short-term overvaluation in EUR/GBP, which may well be a signal of markets starting to price in some GBP risk premium ahead of the UK budget. While the announcement is only on 26 November, it’s widely expected that many bits of the budget will be released to the media in the weeks before."
"We agree that risks mostly lie on the upside for EUR/GBP into year-end, also considering that our economists are still expecting a rate cut by the Bank of England this quarter, which is only 6bp in the price."
"This week, things have been quite quiet in the UK calendar. We heard from both sides of the hawkish-dovish BoE spectrum (Mann and Ramsden), while Governor Bailey is due to speak tomorrow. The lack of new data inputs makes it unlikely we'll see major deviations in off-meeting communication for now."
FXStreet
More than a million users rely on FXStreet for real-time market data, charting tools, expert insights, and forex news. Its comprehensive economic calendar and educational webinars help traders stay informed and make calculated decisions. FXStreet is supported by a team of about 60 professionals, split between the Barcelona headquarters and various global regions.
Read More
