Gold surged to a new all-time high above USD 3,850 per troy ounce, fueled by safe-haven demand amid looming US government shutdown concerns and continued ETF inflows, particularly from North American investors, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

US shutdown fears drive safe-haven demand

"The Gold market continues to break records: yesterday, the price of Gold climbed above USD 3,800 per troy ounce for the first time and this morning reached a new all-time high of USD 3,856 per troy ounce."

"ETF investors in particular continue to jump on the bandwagon: since the beginning of September, ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have recorded inflows of around 100 tons; holdings have now risen by almost 20% from their low in the summer of 2024. However, there is still some way to go before reaching the record holdings of autumn 2020."

"Gold is in demand as a safe haven. Apart from the week ending September 12, most ETF inflows in the last four weeks have been in North America. The latest trigger is the looming US government shutdown: although this is not the first time the US authorities have threatened to shut down, in the past it has usually been averted by the opposition backing down. However, due to political polarization, the situation is considered particularly tricky this time around"