• Gold gains strong positive traction as Trump’s fresh tariff threats boost safe-haven demand.
• Heightened geopolitical risks and the emergence of some USD selling also benefit the bullion.
• Reduced bets for two more Fed rate cuts in 2026 could act as a headwind for the yellow metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trades just below the all-time peak, touched earlier this Monday amid a supportive fundamental backdrop. US President Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on eight European countries that opposed his plan to acquire Greenland. The announcement drew sharp criticism from European officials and raised concerns about a broader transatlantic trade dispute. This, along with heightened geopolitical risk, triggers a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade, prompting investors to seek refuge in traditional safe-haven assets and underpinning the precious metal.

Meanwhile, trade war fears trigger a crisis of confidence in US assets and drag the US Dollar (USD) away from its highest level since December 9, touched last week. This turns out to be another factor offering additional support to the Gold price. However, reduced bets for two more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026 might hold back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets and act as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Nevertheless, the aforementioned factors suggest that the path of least resistance for the commodity remains to the upside and supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established upward trajectory.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold remains well supported by flight to safety, broadly weaker USD

• US President Donald Trump vowed on Saturday that he would impose an additional 10% tariffs on goods from eight European nations starting February 1, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland. Trump added that the rate is set to rise to 25% in June if no agreement is reached.
• Major European Union states condemned the tariff threats over Greenland as blackmail, with France proposing to respond with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures. This reignites trade-war fears, pushing the safe-haven Gold to a fresh record high on Monday.
• Amid rising tensions with the US, Iran issued a fresh warning that any attack on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could spark an all-out war. Adding to this, the intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict keeps geopolitical risks in play and further benefits the safe-haven commodity.
• Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said that there was evidence Russia was considering attacks on key sites linked to nuclear power stations. President Volodymyr Zelensky added that Russian strikes demonstrated that they were not interested in diplomacy or ending the war.
• Trump said that he would prefer to keep National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett in his current role, suggesting that someone else will be tapped to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This forced investors to trim their bets for more aggressive easing by the Fed.
• The US Dollar, however, struggles to benefit from a shift in the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and retreats sharply from its highest level since December 9, touched last week. This turns out to be another factor that contributes to the precious metal's strong intraday move higher.
• Traders now look forward to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index and the final US Q3 GDP print for a fresh impetus on Thursday. The fundamental backdrop, however, seems tilted in favor of the XAU/USD bulls and backs the case for further gains.

Gold technical setup favors bulls; breakout through ascending trend-channel resistance awaited

The bullion has been scaling higher from the late October low along an ascending channel, which points to a well-established short-term uptrend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds above the zero line and has improved over recent sessions, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index at 69.96 sits near overbought, which caps the Gold near the ascending channel resistance.

A rejection at the upper band would shift focus to support at $4,406.94, where the channel structure would be expected to attract bids. A sustained close above resistance would extend the advance, while a pullback would keep the consolidation phase within the channel in play and delay fresh trend extension.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)