Data from Bloomberg suggests that US President Trump's threat of punitive tariffs against India has apparently already had an effect, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

China's crude oil imports remain high

"According to the data, Russia's seaborne oil shipments to India fell to just 460,000 barrels per day last week. This was the third significant weekly decline in a row and the lowest level since April 2022. Until mid-July, the four-week average of Russian oil deliveries to India was still around 1.6 million barrels per day."

"According to people familiar with the matter, state-owned refineries are to stop buying Russian oil. US President Trump has now imposed an additional punitive tariff of 25% on India, which is to come into force in three weeks. With the reciprocal tariffs taking effect this week, the total tariff rate would then rise to 50%."

"China is also under pressure from Trump because of its oil purchases from Russia. According to customs data, China's crude oil imports totaled 47.2 million tons, or 11.13 million barrels per day, in July. Although this was 5.4% less than in the previous month, it was 11.5% more than in the same month last year. The customs authority will publish data on the origin of imports later this month. In June, imports from Russia amounted to a good 2 million barrels per day, making Russia China's most important oil supplier."