US President Trump has threatened India with punitive tariffs of an unspecified amount on top of the general tariff rate of 25% for purchases of Russian weapons and Russian energy, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Russia remains India's most important oil supplier

"The pressure already seems to be having an effect. India's four state-owned refineries reportedly stopped buying Russian oil this past week, according to Reuters, citing four sources familiar with the refineries' plans. Instead, they are said to be buying oil on the spot market in the Middle East and West Africa."

"Bloomberg reports, citing informed sources, that the Indian government wants to know from state-owned refineries how oil supplies can be ensured if oil supplies from Russia are no longer available. However, the majority of India's oil imports from Russia go to private refineries. In the first half of the year, these refineries purchased almost 60% of oil deliveries from Russia, which averaged 1.8 million barrels per day."

"Russia accounts for around 35% of India's total oil imports, making it India's most important oil supplier. It is unlikely that India will be able to completely abandon Russian oil in the short term, especially as other countries are also under pressure to look for alternative suppliers."