美元:仍然存在下行风险 - 荷兰国际集团
荷兰国际集团外汇分析师弗朗切斯科-佩索莱指出,关于地区银行健康状况和美国更广泛的信贷质量的担忧仍然是外汇市场的核心。

荷兰国际集团外汇分析师弗朗切斯科-佩索莱指出,关于地区银行健康状况和美国更广泛的信贷质量的担忧仍然是外汇市场的核心。

DXY在接下来的几天内可能轻松下跌1%+

“上周五,情绪的某些恢复帮助美元反弹,表明未来可能需要一些更有力的证据来支持这些担忧,以再次施压美元。这将在本周地区贷款机构的财报中得到关注。在这里,美元的风险似乎偏向下行。”

“如果贷款问题不超出Zions Bancorp和Western Alliance,可能会为美元提供进一步的缓解,但这可能不足以完全消除对信贷市场基本健康状况的担忧,并使美元收复所有损失。相反,其他贷款机构的传染证据或更大信贷质量问题的信号可能会轻松导致DXY在接下来的几天内下跌1%以上。”

“周五,BLS将发布9月份延迟的CPI数据。我们与市场共识一致,预计核心数据环比增长0.3%——这应该进一步支持美联储下周降息25个基点。除非与共识有重大偏差,否则通胀数据不应对外汇产生重大影响,劳动力市场在利率预期中扮演更重要的角色。”

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