Oil prices extended losses yesterday after reports that OPEC+ may be bringing supply back onto the market at a quicker-than-expected pace, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

US crude oil inventories are reported to have fallen

"The group is currently unwinding its voluntary supply cuts of 1.66m b/d, which were planned to be brought back gradually at 137k b/d per month. There are now reports that it may go with three monthly supply hikes of around 500k b/d each. If true, this will increase the scale of the surplus through the fourth quarter of this year and next year. The market should get more clarity on 5 October, when the group decides on output levels for November."

"Numbers overnight from the American Petroleum Institute were somewhat supportive for crude oil and bearish for refined products. US crude oil inventories are reported to have fallen by 3.7m barrels over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks fell by 693k barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 1.3m barrels and 3m barrels, respectively. The more widely followed inventory report from the Energy Information Administration will be released later today."

"Middle distillate cracks remain well-supported amid concerns over market tightness. However, gasoil stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region continue to recover, hitting their highest level since May. Russia’s diesel export ban for resellers should have a limited impact on flows. Yet the move doesn’t help sentiment in a market already concerned about tightness. It could also open the door for further restrictions on middle distillate exports at a later stage."