Brent crude is drifting toward the lower end of its two-month trading range as traders weigh the possibility of a larger-than-expected OPEC+ production increase in November. Despite official denials, past surprises from the group are keeping markets cautious, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Brent under pressure ahead of OPEC+

"Oil prices are under pressure, with Brent crude approaching the lower end of its roughly two-month trading range. Prices are being weighed down by speculation that the eight OPEC+ countries meeting virtually on Sunday may announce a significantly larger production increase for November than for October."

"While daily production this month is set to rise by "only" 137,000 barrels, reports from news agencies, citing delegates, suggest that production increases of up to 500,000 barrels per day could be on the table for November."

"Despite OPEC's denial and its statement that discussions on this matter have not yet started, market participants appear to be positioning themselves cautiously. After all, the group has frequently surprised markets with swift production hikes in the recent past."