• US CB Consumer Confidence Index recedes in September.
• The US Dollar Index remains on the back foot near 97.80.

US consumer sentiment lost momentum in September, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 from a revised 97.8 (from 97.4), curtailing the previous recovery.

From the data release: “The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labour market conditions—fell by 7.0 points to 125.4. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labour market conditions—decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025.”

According to Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board: “The present situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings. Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions, but optimism about future income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index.”

Market reaction

The US Dollar (USD) extends its ongoing leg lower, motivating the US Dollar Index (DXY) to flirt with multi-day lows around the 97.80 zone.