USD/CAD edges lower as hotter-than-expected inflation and limited BOC easing cap downside, while potential trade and budget developments may bolster the Canadian Dollar (CAD), BBH FX analysts report.

Canada September CPI surprises to the upside

"USD/CAD is down near the lower end of its multi-day 1.4000-1.4080 range. The Bank of Canada’s (BOC) limited room to deliver more easing, despite a subdued growth outlook, is not CAD supportive. However, a possible US-Canada trade deal next week and a pro-growth Canadian 2025 budget on November 4 bode well for CAD."

"Canada September inflation ran hot. Headline CPI rose to a seven-month high at 2.4% y/y (consensus: 2.2%) vs. 1.9% in August due to base effect. Core CPI (average of trim and median CPI) unexpectedly quickens to a 19-month high at 3.15% y/y (consensus: 3.0%) vs. 3.10% in August."

"Upside risk to underlying inflation is not fading, suggesting the bar is high for the BOC to slash the policy rate below the lower end of its estimated neutral range of 2.25% to 3.25%. Canada’s swaps curve implies 75% odds of a 25bps cut to 2.25% at the next October 29 meeting and small odds of an additional 25bps cut in Q1 next year."