The US Dollar (USD) trades mixed in a narrow range as stocks pause and bonds rise, with focus on today’s US October Consumer Confidence report, where falling confidence and a weak labor differential point to potential downward pressure on the currency in the coming months, BBH FX analysts report.

USD expected to edge lower on rate and trade outlook

"USD is mixed within its recent tight range, the rally in stocks paused while bond markets are up. The spotlight today is the US October Conference Board Consumer Confidence index (2:00pm London, 10:00am New York)."

"Consumer confidence is seen falling to a six-month low at 93.4 vs. 94.2 in September. But given the Fed’s concern that downside risks to employment have risen, pay attention to the labor differential index (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get) of the Conference Board report. That index dropped 3.3 points to 7.8 in August, the lowest since February 2021 and indicative of a rapid rise in the unemployment rate."

"Over the next three to six months, our base case remains for USD to edge lower undermined by a downward adjustment to US rate expectations and US protectionist trade policy."