Market research firms point out that Apple is expected to overtake Samsung in 2025 to become the world’s largest smartphone vendor by shipments, marking the first time in 14 years that Apple has returned to the top of the global rankings.

Data show that Apple is expected to ship around 243 million iPhones this year, compared with an estimated 235 million units for Samsung. Apple’s share of the global smartphone market will reach 19.4%, slightly higher than Samsung’s 18.7%.

Apple’s strong performance is mainly driven by the iPhone 17 series launched in September, which has delivered explosive results during the holiday shopping season. Statistics indicate that in the first four weeks after launch in the U.S., sales of the iPhone 17 series were 12% higher than those of the iPhone 16 series over the same period; in China, Apple’s most critical overseas market, sales of the new models in the comparable period were 18% higher than the previous generation.

In addition to the strong market performance of the iPhone 17 series, the smartphone replacement cycle reaching a key inflection point is another core reason behind the upward revision in forecasts. By contrast, Samsung may face fierce competition from Chinese manufacturers in the mid- to low-end segments going forward, which will limit its ability to reclaim the global No.1 position.

From a longer-term perspective, Apple is expected to remain the global leader in the smartphone market at least until 2029. Research firms list multiple supporting factors. First, from 2023 to the second quarter of 2025, a total of 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold worldwide. These users are highly likely to upgrade to new iPhone models in the future, forming a large and stable demand base for Apple.

The research report notes that the trade agreement reached between China and the United States means the tariff impact on Apple’s supply chain has been far smaller than initially feared. In addition, a weaker U.S. dollar and a more solid economic outlook have boosted consumer confidence — all of which provide tailwinds for Apple.

With the appeal of the iOS ecosystem continuing to increase, the high level of interconnectivity among Apple products, and a large pool of users of older models approaching replacement, Apple is expected to maintain its lead over other smartphone makers through the end of this decade.

Market Outlook:

Looking ahead, Apple is expected to launch an entry-level iPhone 17e and a foldable iPhone next year. At the same time, the company plans a major redesign of the iPhone in 2027 and a comprehensive upgrade of its voice assistant Siri, as previously announced. All of these moves will further strengthen Apple’s competitive edge.