AUD/USD Price Forecast: Trades below 0.7100 as bulls turn cautious near four-week top

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The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up and retreats slightly from the 0.7100 mark, or a nearly four-week high set during the Asian session this Tuesday.

AUD/USD retreats slightly from a multi-week top, though the downside remains cushioned.
Hopes for Iran diplomacy and Fed rate doubts undermine the USD, supporting spot prices.
The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for further gains amid the hawkish RBA.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up and retreats slightly from the 0.7100 mark, or a nearly four-week high set during the Asian session this Tuesday. The downtick lacks any obvious catalyst and is more likely to be limited amid a combination of supporting factors.

The US Dollar (USD) has touched a fresh low since early March amid hopes that the door for Iran diplomacy remains open and that negotiations would continue. The optimism remains supportive of a positive risk tone, which, along with uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future interest rate moves, undermines the USD and acts as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. Adding to this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance validates the near-term positive outlook for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices keep a bullish bias above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March slide. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index around 60 hints that bulls retain control without yet entering overbought territory. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flattens slightly below the zero line, suggesting that upside momentum is positive but not impulsive.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 0.7111, ahead of the recent swing high near 0.7186. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 0.7052, followed by the 50% level at 0.7010 and the 200-period EMA at 0.6994. A convincing break below the latter would expose the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.6969 and the 23.6% level at 0.6917 before the recent cycle swing low around 0.6834.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.80%	-0.93%	-0.29%	-0.59%	-1.36%	-1.21%	-0.95%
EUR	0.80%		-0.14%	0.47%	0.22%	-0.51%	-0.41%	-0.14%
GBP	0.93%	0.14%		0.54%	0.37%	-0.37%	-0.28%	-0.01%
JPY	0.29%	-0.47%	-0.54%		-0.27%	-0.98%	-0.82%	-0.67%
CAD	0.59%	-0.22%	-0.37%	0.27%		-0.62%	-0.55%	-0.37%
AUD	1.36%	0.51%	0.37%	0.98%	0.62%		0.14%	0.28%
NZD	1.21%	0.41%	0.28%	0.82%	0.55%	-0.14%		0.27%
CHF	0.95%	0.14%	0.01%	0.67%	0.37%	-0.28%	-0.27%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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