Australian Dollar trades mixed in countdown to the Aussie CPI, Fed policy

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) demonstrated a mixed performance against its major currency peers, trading marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) around 0.7180 during the European trading session on Tuesday.

The Australian Dollar trades mixed against its peers ahead of the Aussie Q1 CPI data.
Australian Q1 CPI is expected to have grown strongly by 4.1% Year-on-Year (YoY).
Investors await the Fed’s monetary policy, which will be announced on Wednesday.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.11%	0.08%	-0.18%	0.08%	0.15%	0.27%	0.23%
EUR	-0.11%		-0.04%	-0.28%	-0.05%	0.02%	0.12%	0.12%
GBP	-0.08%	0.04%		-0.24%	-0.00%	0.07%	0.16%	0.16%
JPY	0.18%	0.28%	0.24%		0.25%	0.31%	0.41%	0.39%
CAD	-0.08%	0.05%	0.00%	-0.25%		0.07%	0.15%	0.15%
AUD	-0.15%	-0.02%	-0.07%	-0.31%	-0.07%		0.12%	0.12%
NZD	-0.27%	-0.12%	-0.16%	-0.41%	-0.15%	-0.12%		-0.02%
CHF	-0.23%	-0.12%	-0.16%	-0.39%	-0.15%	-0.12%	0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

The antipodean will likely face high volatility as the Australian Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled to be published on Wednesday. Investors will pay close attention to the Australian inflation data to get fresh cues on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy outlook. In the March policy meeting, the RBA raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1% and stated that inflationary pressures were already high before the onset of the Middle East war, which resulted in a sharp increase in oil prices.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to show that price pressures grew strongly by 1.4% against 0.6% in the last quarter of the previous year. On an annualized basis, the Australian CPI rose at a faster pace of 4.1% against the previous reading of 3.6%.

Signs of further acceleration in inflationary pressures would boost the speculation of more interest rate hikes by the RBA this year.

According to a Reuters report, currently there is an 82% chance that the RBA will hike interest rates again in its monetary policy meeting in May.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades close to its Monday closing price around 98.50. The US Dollar faced a sharp selling pressure on Monday after strong opening gains, as Iran’s readiness to end the war with the United States (US) diminished its safe-haven demand.

On the domestic front, investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

Economic Indicator

Quarterly Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The quarterly CPI data series are calculated as the average of the three relevant monthly CPIs. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the same quarter a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has a significant impact on the market and the AUD valuation. The gauge is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in order to achieve its inflation mandate, which has major monetary policy implications. Rising consumer prices tend to be AUD bullish, as the RBA could hike interest rates to maintain its inflation target. The data is released nearly 25 days after the quarter ends.

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