Societe Generale’s commodity team notes that Brent prices rose nearly 4% on the day the UAE announced its exit from OPEC and OPEC+, as Hormuz-related tensions overshadowed what would normally be a bearish supply shock. The bank argues Saudi Arabia now bears a heavier balancing burden and sees the market focused on whether other producers might follow the UAE.

UAE exit shifts burden to Saudi Arabia

"On Tuesday 28 April 2026, the UAE announced its decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1."

"Under normal circumstances this would have been a major market‑moving event, likely pushing prices lower, yet Brent rose nearly 4% on the day as the Hormuz crisis dominated."

"The signal is unambiguous: geopolitics and uncertainty are overwhelming fundamentals."

"OPEC and its allies have agreed to lift output by around 188,000 barrels per day in June, signalling to markets that the group’s policy framework remains intact despite the United Arab Emirates’ exit."

"We view the increase as symbolic rather than a catalyst for prices, given the operational and geopolitical constraints facing exporters—most notably the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)