ING’s Chris Turner highlights risks from the scheduled United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review for Canada and Mexico, noting potential delays as parties renegotiate terms. He sees trade uncertainty, a strong Dollar and a dovish Bank of Canada (BoC) weighing on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), expecting USD/CAD to stay above 1.42 with possible moves toward 1.45 if USMCA talks deteriorate or the Dollar overshoots.

Trade review risk supports upside

"In theory, the review of the USMCA trade agreement – the agreement that replaced NAFTA – is due today."

"Most expect this will be delayed as the US, Canada and Mexico haggle over how to adjust the terms. It seems the US wants to strengthen some of the rules of origin language."

"Clearly, any trade renegotiation activity proves a threat to Canada and Mexico. We see downside risks to the Canadian dollar here, also suffering from the strong dollar and a dovish Bank of Canada wanting to look through the inflation spike. "

"Expect USD/CAD to hold above 1.42, with outside risks to 1.45 this month if USMCA discussions go wrong or the dollar overshoots."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)