Cardano Price Forecast: Under pressure as bearish derivatives cap recovery

Cardano price remains under pressure on Monday, trading below key EMAs.
Derivatives metrics support a bearish bias with negative funding rates and rising short bets.
Momentum indicators paint a cautious picture, suggesting only limited recovery attempts within the prevailing downtrend.

Cardano (ADA) remains under pressure, trading lower at $0.165 on Monday after mild losses in the previous week. Weakening derivatives metrics and subdued momentum indicators suggest that ADA's upside move remains limited, keeping downside risks in focus.

Derivatives metrics cap ADA recovery

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Derivatives data for Cardano shows bearish sentiment among traders. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for ADA reads 0.82 on Monday, nearing the lowest level over a month. The ratio being below one indicates bearish sentiment, as traders are betting the asset's price will fall.

ADA long-to-short ratio chart. Source: Coinglass

In addition, the funding rates also show a bearish bias. ADA funding rates flipped negative on Sunday, reading -0.008 on Monday, indicating that shorts are paying longs and signaling a negative outlook.

Cardano funding rates chart. Source: Coinglass

Cardano Price Forecast: Trades below key EMAs

Cardano price trades at $0.165, holding in a bearish near-term bias as price remains capped well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered from roughly $0.180 to $0.270.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just below the neutral band, around 47, suggesting subdued momentum after the recent bounce from the lows. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator edges closer to the signal line with a very small positive reading, suggesting only modest recovery attempts within a broader downtrend.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.173, closely followed by the 50-day EMA around $0.175; a sustained break above this cluster would open the way toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.195 and the 100-day EMA near $0.200. Further up, the 50% retracement at $0.213 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.231 precede a dense resistance band around $0.236–$0.245.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the horizontal level of $0.150, ahead of the Fibonacci anchor low around $0.137, where buyers would be expected to show more interest if the current decline extends.