Euro remains stronger despite uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks

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EUR/USD may fall as the US Dollar could gain ground from uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions.
The US and Iran paused Gulf hostilities to resume Strait of Hormuz talks following several days of retaliatory strikes.
Commerzbank expects one final September ECB rate hike, as quantitative models show sticky inflation despite declining oil and gas prices.

EUR/USD pair maintains its upward momentum for a third consecutive session, trading near 1.1390 during Monday's Asian hours. Despite this positive streak, the Euro’s (EUR) gains could face headwinds if geopolitical uncertainty sparks a flight to safety, boosting the US Dollar (USD). Market participants remain highly sensitive to evolving headlines out of the Middle East as they assess the stability of the region and its broader impact on global risk sentiment.

The primary geopolitical focus centers on the volatile situation between the United States (US) and Iran. According to a Reuters report on Sunday, the two nations have agreed to temporarily pause recent hostilities in the Gulf and renew discussions regarding their ongoing dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. This diplomatic opening follows several days of retaliatory strikes triggered on Thursday when an Iranian projectile hit a cargo vessel, leading both Washington and Tehran to accuse one another of violating a previously established June 17 interim ceasefire. Official delegations from both countries are scheduled to meet in Qatar on Tuesday to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Meanwhile, currency traders are weighing shifting monetary policy expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) against a backdrop of easing energy prices, which have helped cool immediate inflation fears.

However, Commerzbank analysts still expect the central bank to deliver one final interest rate hike in September. According to their quantitative modeling, despite the decline in oil and gas prices, underlying inflation is projected to stick close to 3% through the end of the year because businesses are expected to gradually pass their accumulated, higher operational costs down to consumers.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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