Euro trims gains against the British Pound after UK jobs data, BoE rate decision looms

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The EUR/GBP cross pares gains near 0.8650 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) trades flat against the Euro (EUR) following the UK employment report. All eyes will be on the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision later on Thursday.

EUR/GBP steadies around 0.8650 in Thursday’s early European session.
UK Unemployment Rate falls to 4.9% in April.
BoE is widely expected to keep the benchmark rate at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday showed that the UK ILO Unemployment Rate fell to 4.9% in the three months to April, down from 5.0% in March. This figure came in below the market consensus of 5.0%.

Meanwhile, the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 31.2K in May, compared with a revised increase of 8.3K in April and the expected 25.8K gain.

The attention will shift to the BoE policy meeting. The UK central bank is set to leave the interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday. Traders will closely monitor the press conference, as Governor Andrew Bailey could offer some hints about the UK interest rate outlook.

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked its key interest rates, saying “the war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures.” This marks the first rate increase since September 2023, after seven consecutive meetings where interest rates were kept on hold.

BoE FAQs

What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound?

The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).

How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling?

When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound?

In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.

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