Indonesian Rupiah gains as S&P’s stable ‘BBB’ rating boosts investor confidence

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USD/IDR depreciates after registering gains in the previous day, trading around 18,140 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) stabilizes against the US Dollar (USD), buoyed by a rally in domestic equities.

IDR advances as domestic equity rally on S&P’s stable BBB rating affirmation for Indonesia boosted investor sentiment.
The US Dollar declines despite rising safe-haven demand and energy-driven inflation fears.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 51% chance of a September Fed rate hike versus a 23% hold probability.

Investor sentiment got a major lift after S&P Global Ratings affirmed Indonesia’s BBB/A-2 sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. S&P noted that while high energy prices, elevated global interest rates, and currency weakness present headwinds, these risks are effectively mitigated by strong commodity revenues, strict fiscal spending restraint, and robust reforms in the resource sector.

Further reinforcing the Rupiah's floor was a strong mid-year fiscal report. Government data revealed that state revenue reached 46.3% of its full-year target, marking a sharp 21.4% year-over-year increase and signaling strong economic resilience.

The USD/IDR pair remains subdued as the US Dollar (USD) holds losses despite rising safe-haven demand due to escalating Middle East tensions. Reuters reported that US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced new precision strikes on Iranian military targets, noting that over 50,000 US service members are currently deployed across the Middle East.

Crude oil prices rise on renewed supply concerns, stoking fears that energy-driven inflation will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates elevated. Market expectations have shifted rapidly in response, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing a 51% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, compared to just a 23% chance that rates will stay on hold.

US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled to be released on Tuesday. Analysts anticipate a divergence between a 0.1% month-on-month decline in headline inflation and a sticky 0.3% increase in the core reading. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver highly anticipated congressional testimony, a session that traders will dissect word-by-word for hints on whether the central bank will validate the market's growing hawkishness.

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

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