• Bitcoin’s rebound takes a breather as $80,000 support holds amid fading optimism for a US-Iran final peace agreement.
• Investors are cautious ahead of US macroeconomic data, including Tuesday's CPI release.
• The US Senate Banking Committee is set to hold its markup hearing for the Clarity Act on Thursday.
• Approximately $159 million in unlocks, including Solana’s $40 million and Pump.fun’s $21 million, could trigger volatility.

The cryptocurrency market commenced the week’s trading lackluster, with Bitcoin (BTC) struggling to hold above $80,000 support as optimism for a United States (US)-Iran final peace agreement faded amid emerging challenges in the negotiations.

Altcoins exhibited exhaustion, as evidenced by Ethereum (ETH) sliding from its weekly high at $2,375 and Ripple (XRP) testing support at $1.45 after being rejected from the $1.50 supply range.

Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal

US President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, describing it as “totally unacceptable.” The proposal delivered to the White House through Pakistani mediators was a counteroffer to a one-page US memorandum outlining a phased approach to ending the conflict in the US, which has disrupted one of the world’s important shipping routes, the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran demanded that the US remove all sanctions, an immediate removal of its military blockade of the Strait, and nuclear-related compromises such as a shorter moratorium on uranium enrichment. Moreover, Iran requested sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, including the right to coordinate all maritime traffic.

Trump has maintained a hard line on Iran’s nuclear program, insisting that it has to be completely dismantled.

Meanwhile, global markets remain on edge as optimism for a final peace deal narrows amid a fragile peace deal. Oil prices are still relatively high, near $95.00 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

Caution ahead of US macro data

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday. This is the primary inflation indicator in the US, measuring the average change in prices of goods and services, including food, housing and transportation over time.

For investors, the CPI sets the expectations for interest rates. Higher inflation would further dim hopes of rate cuts in 2026, while a softer report may reinforce the bullish case for risk assets such as Bitcoin, as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve (Fed) easing its monetary policy.

The CPI in March came in hotter than expected, with headline inflation at 3.3% YoY, up from 2.4% YoY in February. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the Core CPI rose to 2.6% in March, up from 2.5% in February. Markets expect CPI to rise by 3.7% YoY in April, while the core reading is forecast at 2.7%.

Still, this week investors expect the Producer Price Index (PPI) data release on Wednesday, which focuses on the seller and measures the average change in the prices producers receive for their goods and services.

Clarity Act heads to US Senate for markup hearing

The Senate Banking Committee plans to hold its long-awaited markup hearing for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, commonly referred to as the Clarity Act, on Thursday. Following Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s January announcement that the exchange had withdrawn its support due to stablecoin yield and other provisions, the Clarity remained largely in limbo.

However, a compromise text released by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks, which indicated that the Act would prohibit crypto companies from offering yield on static stablecoin reverse holdings while allowing rewards for stablecoin assets used in activities, seemed to have resolved the stalemate, advancing the bill to the next stage.

At the same time, banking industry groups said they still had unresolved issues with the compromise text and would provide further feedback to arrive at a solution “that embraces the innovation represented by digital assets while also protecting consumers,” a CoinDesk report said.

Large token unlocks may spark volatility

Various cryptocurrencies are scheduled to release more supply to the open market this week, starting with notable Based at $5 million on Monday. Defi Llama data highlights more supply shocks on Tuesday, including Solana’s $40 million, Pump.fun’s $21 million and Aptos’ nearly $13 million.

Other large releases during the week include Sei’s approximately $9 million on Thursday, Connex’s roughly $18 million on Friday and Arbitrum’s approximately $13 million on Saturday.

Technical outlook: Bitcoin rally softens as support holds

Bitcoin trades at $81,246, keeping a capped tone as it sits below the 50- and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and the weekly SuperTrend line. The 200-week EMA around $68,125 underpins the broader uptrend, while a still-positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 50 on the daily chart suggest momentum is stabilizing rather than decisively turning higher for now.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-week EMA near $82,381, with the 50-week EMA around $85,634 reinforcing a dense supply zone above. A more meaningful bullish re-acceleration would likely require a weekly close back over the SuperTrend barrier at $91,753. On the downside, the 200-week EMA at $68,125 serves as the key structural support. A break below it would considerably weaken the medium-term technical outlook.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)