EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears flirt with 1.1600 amid a broadly firmer USD

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EUR/USD attracts sellers for the second straight day on Monday amid a modest USD strength.
The technical setup warrants caution for bearish traders and positioning for deeper losses.
A sustained strength beyond the 50-day SMA is needed to back the case for further gains.

The EUR/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second straight day on Monday as diminishing odds for another rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) provide a modest lift to the US Dollar (USD). Spot prices retreat further from an over two-week high touched last Thursday, with bears awaiting a sustained break and acceptance below the 1.1600 mark before positioning for deeper losses.

From a technical perspective, last week's failure near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance and the subsequent slide favors the EUR/USD bears. However, neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution amid the growing acceptance that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its deposit rate at current levels by the end of next year, which favors the Euro (EUR) bulls.

Hence, any further decline is more likely to attract some buyers and find decent support near the 1.1575-1.1570 horizontal zone. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and make the EUR/USD pair vulnerable to aim towards testing the 1.1500 psychological mark. Spot prices could eventually drop to the 1.1470-1.1465 region, or the lowest level since early August, touched earlier this month.

On the flip side, the 50-day SMA, currently pegged near the 1.1660-1.1665 zone, might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier, above which the EUR/USD pair could reclaim the 1.1700 mark. Some follow-through buying beyond the 1.1725-1.1730 area would set the stage for additional gains towards the 1.1755-1.1760 region en route to the 1.1800 round figure and the 1.1815-1.1820 resistance zone.

EUR/USD daily chart

(This story was corrected on November 17 at 05:53 GMT to say, in the first bullet, that EUR/USD attracts sellers for the second straight day on Monday, not Friday.)

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.17%	0.14%	0.06%	0.03%	0.20%	0.13%	0.11%
EUR	-0.17%		-0.04%	-0.09%	-0.14%	0.03%	-0.04%	-0.06%
GBP	-0.14%	0.04%		-0.08%	-0.11%	0.06%	-0.01%	-0.03%
JPY	-0.06%	0.09%	0.08%		-0.04%	0.14%	0.07%	0.05%
CAD	-0.03%	0.14%	0.11%	0.04%		0.17%	0.10%	0.08%
AUD	-0.20%	-0.03%	-0.06%	-0.14%	-0.17%		-0.07%	-0.09%
NZD	-0.13%	0.04%	0.01%	-0.07%	-0.10%	0.07%		-0.02%
CHF	-0.11%	0.06%	0.03%	-0.05%	-0.08%	0.09%	0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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