OPEC+ production fell short of targets by 720,000 bpd in December, with Russia and Kazakhstan contributing most to the shortfall amid ongoing disruptions. Ukrainian drone attacks on key Kazakh export terminals have sharply reduced output, suggesting that global Oil oversupply could be lower than anticipated, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Ukrainian drone strikes disrupt Kazakh Oil output

"According to the OPEC monthly report, OPEC+ Oil production in December was 42.83 million barrels per day. Countries bound by production targets produced a good 720,000 barrels per day less than agreed. A survey by S&P Global Energy came to a similar result. The largest deviation to the downside was in Russia."

"Production in Kazakhstan dropped below the target (without compensatory cuts) for the first time in a year. This was due to a sharp decline in Oil production following a Ukrainian drone attack on an important export terminal on the Black Sea at the end of November. Kazakhstan's production remains limited in January."

"According to Reuters, Kazakh Oil production in the first 12 days of the current month was 35% below the December average. This week, three Oil tankers near the aforementioned export terminal were also targeted by drone attacks. The oversupply on the Oil market could therefore be lower than expected."