The crack spread in the diesel market climbed to nearly $27 per barrel yesterday, marking a 19-month high, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Russia’s export rules spark diesel market jitters

"Boosting prices were initial reports that Russia intends to ban some companies from exporting diesel. Following repeated attacks on Russian refineries, concerns have grown that domestic supply might become strained. Reports indicate that processing in Russia has dropped by approximately 7% since August. However, Deputy Prime Minister Novak later clarified that the export ban would only apply to traders and resellers."

"This significantly reduces the impact, as it is estimated that only a one digit percentage share of Russia's exports will be affected. Nonetheless, this news touches a sensitive issue, as the diesel market is already expected to remain tight: In a recent article, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that US distillate inventories are projected to hit multi-year lows by the end of 2025 and into 2026. This is partly due to increased exports to Europe, which have been replacing some former Russian imports."

"European demand could rise even further when the EU’s ban on the import of petroleum products derived from Russian crude oil takes effect in early 2026. According to the IEA, Europe imported an average of 160,000 barrels per day (18% of diesel imports) from India and Turkey in the first half of 2025, much of which is likely derived from Russian crude oil."