USD/CAD trades with caution near 1.3950 ahead of US employment, Services PMI data

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The USD/CAD pair trades cautiously near 1.3960 during the European trading session on Wednesday.

USD/CAD faces selling pressure as the US Dollar remains on the backfoot.
US President Trump’s comments signaled that White House economic adviser Hassett is his preferred choice as the Fed’s next chairman.
Investors await US ADP Employment, ISM Services PMI, and the Canadian labor market data for November.

The USD/CAD pair trades cautiously near 1.3960 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Loonie pair struggles to gain ground as the US Dollar (USD) is under pressure, following hints from United States (US) President Donald Trump that White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett could be the successor of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026.

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly lower to near 99.10.

On Tuesday, US President Trump stated that he has narrowed the list of potential Fed’s next chair candidates to one, which will be announced in early 2026, adding the name of White House adviser Hassett in his comments.

“I guess a potential Fed chair is here too. Am I allowed to say that? Potential. He’s a respected person, that I can tell you. Thank you, Kevin," Trump said, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, investors await the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November, which will be published during the North American session. The impact of the US private sector employment data will be significant on expectations towards the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, given that a majority of officials, including Jerome Powell, have warned of downside labor market risks.

This week, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) will be influenced by the labor market data for November, which will be released on Friday. The Canadian Unemployment Rate is expected to come in higher at 7% from 6.9% in October. Meanwhile, the overall laborforce is expected to have remained flat.

Economic Indicator

ADP Employment Change

The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

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