• GBP/USD advances after the Supreme Court of the United States invalidated tariffs invoked under IEEPA.
• Trade policy uncertainty and weak Factory Orders keep the US Dollar on the defensive.
• Sterling upside tempered by easing bets at the Bank of England and pressure on Keir Starmer.

GBP/USD registers gains of 0.31% on Monday after the US Supreme Court rejected President Donald Trump’s tariffs invoked using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) national emergency. In the meantime, uncertainty about trade policies keeps the US Dollar (USD) on the back foot. The pair trades at 1.3507 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3475.

Sterling gains with the Dollar pressured by trade uncertainty and softer US factory data

Last week, the Supreme Court revealed that duties imposed on national emergency are illegal and reiterated that the US Constitution grants Congress, not the president, the authority to impose taxes and tariffs.

After the decision, Trump announced that he will impose 10% global tariffs, but raised them on Sunday to 15% under Section 122, which means that once enacted it will last for 150 days, with further extensions requiring the US Congress’ approval.

In the meantime, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that trade deals remain in place.

Data in the US was scarce, with Factory Orders in December plummeting 0.7% MoM, down from a 2.7% expansion in November, due to a decline in commercial aircraft bookings. US manufacturing has been halted by Trump’s tariffs as business leaders expressed that it has raised costs for factories and consumers.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he favors further easing if the January strong Nonfarm Payrolls report is downwardly revised. Otherwise, he supports keeping rates steady if the trend continues in February, a slight hawkish tilt in his rhetoric.

In the UK, the economic schedule is scarce, but growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points at the March 19 meeting loom.

Last week, a weaker-than-expected jobs report in the UK pushed the unemployment rate higher. Conversely, cooler-than-expected inflation data, which hit its lowest level since March 2025, increased the BoE’s officials’ confidence that prices are edging lower, warranting a rate reduction.

Aside from this, political pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer could weigh on the Pound Sterling, following allegations that his nominee to be the US ambassador had ties with Jeffrey Epstein.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3505. Simple moving averages slope upward, sustaining a medium-term bullish bias, yet the pair sits just beneath a nearby average at 1.3532 that caps the immediate bounce. A daily close back above that barrier could reassert the trend and encourage extension on the topside.

The rising trend line from 1.3035 underpins the broader advance, encouraging dip-buying interest while it holds. A failure to reclaim overhead moving-average resistance and a break of that dynamic floor would shift the setup toward a corrective phase. Conversely, preserving the trend line keeps the bias pointed higher as USD impulses soften alongside a moderating FXS Fed Sentiment Index.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)