GBP/USD slips as weak US payrolls revision keeps Fed cut bets intact

Sterling pares gains after -911K NFP revision, UK Retail Sales rise but fiscal worries linger

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed the preliminary benchmark total payroll revisions since March 2025, which witnessed a downward revision of -911K. Ahead of the report, the US government revealed that the economy added nearly 1.8 million to the workforce in a year through March.

Tuesday’s data barely moved the needle regarding traders expecting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Since last week’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures, odds for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut are fully priced in, but a minority at around 9% expect a 50 bps cut by the US central bank.

Across the pond, the UK Retail Sales in August revealed by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) grew 3.1% YoY, up from a previous reading of 1% a year ago. Despite this, the BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said that “With the later-than-expected Budget falling just days before Black Friday, many are uneasy about how consumer confidence and spending could be impacted by tax rise speculation in the run-up to Christmas.”

Market participants’ eyes are focused on the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures in the US on Wednesday, followed by Thursday’s busy schedule led by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Initial Jobless Claims data.

Across the pond, traders will eye the manufacturing output report and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures toward the end of the year.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

GBP/USD is set to remain consolidated after failing to challenge July’s peak of 1.3681, which could’ve opened the door to test 1.3700 and the yearly peak of 1.3788. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bullish momentum stalled. Hence, a pullback could be on the cards.

If GBP/USD tumbles below 1.3500, expect a test of the 20-day SMA at 1.3493. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day SMA at 1.3466, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3457.

Pound Sterling Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.08%	-0.20%	-0.68%	-0.03%	-0.51%	-0.55%	-0.32%
EUR	0.08%		-0.14%	-0.50%	0.04%	-0.42%	-0.43%	-0.25%
GBP	0.20%	0.14%		-0.48%	0.17%	-0.29%	-0.30%	-0.11%
JPY	0.68%	0.50%	0.48%		0.57%	0.13%	-0.04%	0.37%
CAD	0.03%	-0.04%	-0.17%	-0.57%		-0.38%	-0.47%	-0.30%
AUD	0.51%	0.42%	0.29%	-0.13%	0.38%		-0.00%	0.18%
NZD	0.55%	0.43%	0.30%	0.04%	0.47%	0.00%		0.19%
CHF	0.32%	0.25%	0.11%	-0.37%	0.30%	-0.18%	-0.19%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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