On March 23 (local time), the Middle East conflict reached its 24th day. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had reached the “framework of an agreement” with Iran and ordered a five-day delay in planned strikes on Iranian power infrastructure. Meanwhile, Iran firmly denied any negotiations and continued launching waves of missile and drone attacks against U.S. and Israeli targets. From morning to late night, statements from Tehran and Washington painted a highly complex picture.

Morning: Iran Launches New Waves of Attacks, U.S. Signals Possible Ground Operation

The day began amid escalating conflict. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the 75th and 76th waves of its “True Promise-4” operation, using drones and missiles — including Qiam and Zolfaghar systems — targeting Israeli military installations and the U.S. Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Iranian media also reported that a U.S. fighter jet had been hit and crashed in Kuwait.

Casualties continued to rise. According to Tehran emergency authorities, cited by Iranian state media, 430 locations in Tehran province have been struck since the war began on February 28, resulting in 636 deaths and 6,848 injuries. U.S. Central Command reported that more than 9,000 targets have been struck in military operations against Iran.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Jerusalem Post reported that U.S. officials had informed Israel and other countries that Washington “may have no choice” but to launch a ground operation against Iran’s Kharg Island — a development that further heightened market anxiety.

Afternoon: Trump Announces “Framework Agreement” and Delays Strikes

A dramatic shift emerged later in the day. During U.S. daytime hours, Trump posted on Truth Social and spoke to the media, claiming that the U.S. and Iran had held “very good and productive” discussions over the past two days, resulting in a “framework agreement.”

Trump stated that, based on these “detailed and constructive” talks, he had ordered a five-day delay in planned strikes on Iranian power facilities to allow room for negotiations. He revealed that senior envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were involved and claimed the talks were initiated by Iran. When asked about the Iranian counterpart, Trump described the individual as “highly respected and a strong leader,” but denied it was Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Israeli media, however, reported that the actual counterpart in discussions was Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. There were also reports that the U.S. had requested a face-to-face meeting with Ghalibaf, possibly in Islamabad.

Evening: Iran Denies Talks and Escalates Military Operations

Within hours of Trump’s “peace announcement,” Tehran issued a firm rebuttal.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that while Iran had received messages from the U.S. via “friendly countries,” there had been no direct or indirect talks between the two sides. Iranian media reinforced that no negotiations had taken place during the past 24 days.

Ghalibaf himself posted on social platform X, strongly denying any talks: “There have been no negotiations with the United States. Fake news is being used to manipulate financial and oil markets and to help the U.S. and Israel out of their predicament.”

At the same time, Iran escalated its military operations. That evening, the IRGC announced the 78th wave of attacks under the “True Promise-4” operation, targeting locations in Eilat, Dimona, northern Tel Aviv, and U.S. bases in the region.

Late Night: Netanyahu Rejects “Deal,” Vows Continued Strikes

Israel’s response further complicated the situation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in a video address that Trump had told him a “deal” could achieve the war’s objectives. However, Netanyahu emphasized that Israel would “defend its core interests under all circumstances” and would continue airstrikes on Iran and Lebanon to dismantle Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, as well as weaken Hezbollah.

He also revealed that Israel had recently eliminated two Iranian nuclear scientists. Later that night, the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed large-scale strikes on infrastructure in Tehran.

Early Morning: Conflict Continues, Tensions Remain High

By the early hours of March 24, the IRGC confirmed that the 78th wave of attacks had been executed and signaled readiness to escalate further if necessary. Meanwhile, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford arrived at Souda Bay in Crete for repairs after a fire damaged several compartments onboard.

Market Reaction

In early trading on March 23, Brent crude briefly surged above $113 per barrel, extending a 50% rally since the conflict began. However, after Trump announced the delay of military action and hinted at negotiations, oil prices sharply dropped by around 10%, falling toward $96.

U.S. equities rallied strongly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged over 900 points intraday (nearly 2%), while the Nasdaq rose 2.07% and the S&P 500 gained 1.82%. Markets were clearly pricing in the possibility of de-escalation.

The next critical deadline is Trump’s five-day window — around March 28. If no tangible progress emerges from negotiations, his earlier threat to “continue bombing at full force” could once again dominate market pricing. Until then, oil prices and risk assets are likely to remain volatile, oscillating between expectations of peace and the reality of ongoing conflict.