• The Australian Dollar pulls back following the release of the central bank’s minutes.
• Reserve Bank of Australia policymakers provide no predefined path for interest rates.
• The US Dollar trades without a clear direction ahead of the Fed minutes and preliminary growth data.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7050 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 0.40% on the day, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes.

The account of the February meeting shows that policymakers considered the rate hike necessary to prevent inflation from remaining above target for too long. Members judged that, without a policy response, price pressures would likely stay elevated for an extended period. However, the Minutes did not provide any indication of a specific interest rate path, emphasizing that future decisions will remain data-dependent. This lack of firm forward guidance limits support for the Australian Dollar, as investors remain cautious about the scale and timing of further tightening.

Market participants are now turning their attention to Australia’s employment data due later this week. According to analysts at BBH, labor market dynamics will be pivotal for rate expectations. Elias Haddad, Global Head of Markets Strategy at BBH, notes that the RBA has resumed its tightening cycle and signaled the possibility of further rate increases amid resilient private demand and persistent labor market tightness. Strong job creation would reinforce expectations of additional hikes over the next twelve months, potentially supporting the Aussie, while weaker data could weigh further on the currency.

On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) is trading in a hesitant manner at the start of the week, with volumes remaining thin after a long weekend in the United States (US). Investors are adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and the preliminary fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate. These releases could refine expectations regarding the policy outlook of the Federal Reserve (Fed), as markets seek further clues about the timing and magnitude of potential rate adjustments.