• AUD/USD attracts fresh sellers following the release of softer-than-expected Australia’s Q1 GDP.
• Geopolitical risks and Fed rate hike bets act as a tailwind for the USD, also weighing on spot prices.
• The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciation.

The AUD/USD pair meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Wednesday and reverses a major part of the previous day's positive move. Spot prices, however, remain confined within a familiar range held over the past week or so and manage to hold above the 0.7150 level.

Data released earlier today showed that Australia's economy grew 0.3% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, marking a significant slowdown from the 0.8% rise in Q4 2025 and missing estimates for a 0.5% increase. Adding to this, Australia's softer consumer inflation figures and a rise in the Unemployment Rate to the highest in about four-and-a-half years in April dampen bets for an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in June.

This, in turn, overshadows the upbeat China Services PMI and exerts some pressure on the Aussie. Meanwhile, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, continues to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and turns out to be another factor weighing on the AUD/USD pair. The lack of follow-through selling, however,

warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciation.

From a technical perspective, spot prices retain a constructive near-term bias above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with a cluster of Fibonacci retracements acting as layered support. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above the neutral band around 51, suggesting modest underlying buying interest. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays slightly negative, hinting that upside momentum is positive but not yet robust.

The mixed setup suggests that any subsequent fall below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March -May upswing, around 0.7165, is likely to find decent support near the 50-day SMA at 0.7118. This is followed by the 38.2% retracement support near 0.7102 if a deeper pullback unfolds. On the topside, the next significant barrier sits at the recent cycle high near 0.7267. A daily close above this level would be needed to reinforce the bullish structure and open the way for further gains.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart