• Bitcoin maintained the $81K price level, pushing short-term holders back into profit and improving overall market structure.
• Net realized profit has flipped positive, signaling a shift from sustained losses to the early stages of profit realization.
• Long-term holders are beginning to distribute modestly, although realized losses remain elevated at $479 million per day.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $81,000, with profit metrics now flipping positive, signaling that market conditions may be stabilizing after months of subdued performance.

The breakout above the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis at $79,100 confirms the shift, according to a Glassnode report on Wednesday. These levels represent the average acquisition price of actively traded supply alongside tokens moved within the last 155 days.

The 30-day Simple Moving Average of Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) has turned positive, currently sitting at 0.003% of market cap. The metric, which tracks whether BTC moved onchain is being sold at a profit or loss, had remained in negative territory for weeks, signaling a shift toward profit realization across the market.

Bitcoin needs strong demand to absorb potential sell pressure

Glassnode highlighted that attention is now turning to whether demand can absorb the growing sell-side pressure, particularly from long-term holders.

“With net realized profit flipping positive, the critical question shifts to whether buy-side liquidity can sustain momentum against the rising tide of long-term holder distribution,” the report stated.

Realized profits from tokens held for over one year have risen to roughly $180 million per day on a 14-day moving average, a level comparable to past distribution phases.

This indicates that long-term holders are beginning to take advantage of improved prices, though the scale of distribution remains moderate and well below peak-cycle levels. Market dynamics reveal some near-term friction, with realized losses still elevated at around $479 million per day.

“A sustained compression of this indicator back below $200 million per day would serve as a strong on-chain confirmation that selling exhaustion is taking hold,” Glassnode wrote.

On the institutional side, US spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing renewed demand, with the 30-day moving average of net flows turning decisively positive after a prolonged stretch of outflows.

The reversal points to a clear shift in institutional sentiment following months of heavy distribution during the late-2025 to early-2026 market downturn.

The pickup in inflows has coincided with Bitcoin’s recovery from lows near $66,000 toward the $80,000 range, suggesting that traditional investors are re-entering the market as price strength returns.

Bitcoin is trading at $81,200 at the time of writing, up 0.2% over the past 24 hours.