Deutsche Bank strategists note that Brent Oil has climbed to its highest level in three weeks as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran stall. They highlight that Brent is above $100/bbl, with gains extending along the futures curve, and that markets are increasingly pricing a more persistent Oil-driven inflation shock.

Brent curve signals persistent strength

"We did have the Axios report late on Sunday night US time (mentioned yesterday) suggesting that Iran had offered the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices probably didn't rise as much as they would have done to start the week without this news."

"But with no immediate progress, oil prices still moved higher through the day and by the close, Brent crude (+2.75%) was back up to $108.23/bbl, which is its highest closing level since the two-week ceasefire was announced in early April."

"With no sense of resolution and the Strait of Hormuz remaining essentially closed, this has brought Brent crude prices to their highest level in three weeks, inching +1.00% higher to $109.31/bbl overnight after a +2.75% rise yesterday."

"Moreover, that increase was clear across the oil futures curve, with 6-month Brent futures (+1.79%) up to $88.01/bbl."

"Given Brent has been back above $100/bbl for nearly a week now, it was clear that wider inflation concerns were rising back up the agenda."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)