Danske Research Team highlights that Brent crude is trading around USD 96 per barrel after sharp intraday swings tied to Middle East headlines. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted despite a ceasefire, and talk of Iranian transit fees keeps geopolitical risk premia elevated in Oil markets.

Hormuz disruption underpins Brent prices

"The oil price (Brent) almost touched 100 USD/barrel yesterday before dropping sharply to below USD 95 on the Israel-Lebanon news. Subsequently, the price has however moved higher again to around 96-97 USD/barrel."

"Brent crude futures are priced at USD 96/bbl at the time of writing."

"In the Middle East, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralysed at less than 10% of normal levels, despite a US-Iran ceasefire. Iran is directing vessels to transit near Larak Island, citing mine risks, and reports suggest it may impose cryptocurrency transit tolls, an idea strongly opposed by Western leaders and the International Maritime Organization."

"Peace talks between the US and Iran, mediated by the Pakistani prime minister, are scheduled to begin on Saturday, but tensions remain high due to disagreements over the agenda. Iran insists on its ten-point plan, which White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claims President Trump "literally threw in the garbage.""

"Further complicating the situation are disputes over whether the ceasefire terms should extend to Lebanon, after Israel's deadly attacks there on Wednesday."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)