Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer expects the Euro area composite PMI to edge up to 51.5 in February, driven by improving manufacturing sentiment as looser policy, higher German spending and limited tariff fallout support activity. The bank keeps its 0.9% 2026 growth forecast and sees ECB rates unchanged, with a rate cut more likely than a hike as core inflation drifts below 2%.

Improving PMIs with stable ECB policy

"The PMIs in the euro area are likely to show improved sentiment in the manufacturing sector next week. As a result, the composite index could rise to 51.5 points and settle at a moderate level."

"In February, we expect a slight increase to 51.5 points."

"Due to higher German government spending, a slight increase in private household consumption, and a somewhat lower impact from US tariffs than expected, sentiment in the manufacturing sector is likely to improve in the near future."

"For February, we expect the industrial PMI to rise to 50 points."

"We also expect ECB key interest rates to remain unchanged, although a rate cut is more likely than a rate hike for the rest of this year."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)