According to ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, Gold has risen as the US-Iran ceasefire holds, easing fears of broader conflict while preserving some safe-haven demand. They see a more durable truce reducing energy-led inflation and Fed tightening risks, with interest rate expectations, US Treasury borrowing plans and economic data set to drive Gold, while a stronger Dollar remains the main downside risk.

Rates outlook and official-sector demand

"In precious metals, gold rose as the US-Iran ceasefire appeared to hold. This is easing fears of a broader conflict while keeping some safe-haven demand intact."

"A more durable truce would reduce energy-led inflation risks and lower the chance of further Federal Reserve tightening, which is supportive for non-yielding assets. For gold, the next driver will be the outlook for interest rates, with US Treasury borrowing plans and key economic data likely to shape expectations for Fed policy. The main downside risk is a stronger dollar or renewed Fed pushback on easing."

"Meanwhile, World Gold Council data showed central banks turned net sellers of gold in March, with net sales of around 30t, although purchases in the first quarter still totalled 27t. Turkey led the selling, cutting holdings by 60t as part of efforts to support FX liquidity, taking its 1Q net sales to 79t. Buying remained concentrated, with Poland adding 11t in March and 31t year to date."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)