Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that the Gold price has retreated sharply as markets price in renewed US rate hikes after strong producer price data. Rising US Treasury yields are increasing the opportunity cost of holding Gold, while India’s steep import tax hike is set to curb physical demand. The new Fed Chair may struggle to justify rate cuts.

Rate expectations and Indian tax shock

"The price of gold has fallen by up to 2% today to USD 4,560 per troy ounce. Before the price drop began yesterday, it was still trading at around USD 4,700. Headwinds are coming from interest rate expectations."

"Following the significantly higher-than-expected US producer price data for April, the market now anticipates interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. A 15-basis-point rise in US key interest rates is priced in by the end of the year, and a full 25-basis-point rate hike by March 2027. As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to a one-year high of 4.54%, representing an increase of around 20 basis points compared with the previous week. This raises the opportunity cost of holding gold."

"The gold price faced further headwinds this week from another source. In India, the tax on gold imports was raised from 6% to 15%, which is likely to dampen demand for gold in India somewhat."

"India’s gold imports had already fallen to a 30-year low in April following a tax hike and could now decline even further."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)