• NZD/USD declines toward 0.5840 after the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged.
• US inflation concerns rise as PPI beats expectations at 3.9%, while Fed projections signal limited rate cuts ahead.
• Traders await New Zealand Q4 GDP data, expected at 0.4% QoQ and 1.7% YoY.

The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5814 price region, sliding by 0.71% after the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and forecast only one rate cut in 2026, supporting the US Dollar (USD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises and hit the 100 mark despite investors had already priced in the Fed’s decision. Fed policymakers maintained the projection of one rate cut in 2026 and one more in 2027.

Earlier in the day, the United States (US) February Price Producers Index (PPI) was released higher than expected at 3.9% from 3.5%, which shows that inflation is still a problem that may get deeper as the report does not reflect the spike in energy prices caused by the Iran war.

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that policymakers expect Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation to be 2.7%, up from 2.4% in December.

On another note, the New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter will be released at the start of the Asian session on Thursday, with an expected 0.4% MoM from 1.1%, and 1.7% YoY from 1.3%.

Short-Term technical analysis:

In the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5840. The near-term bias is in a neutral zone, as the pair holds below both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the shorter average also capped beneath the longer one, reinforcing downside pressure. Price action has faded from recent rebounds, while the 20-period SMA around 0.5835 flattens below the 100-period SMA near 0.5911, outlining a weak recovery profile within a broader downbeat context. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 stays below the 50 midline, indicating lackluster bullish momentum and leaving sellers with a slight advantage.

Immediate resistance emerges at 0.5856, where a horizontal barrier aligns just above spot, with a sustained break higher needed to challenge the 100-period SMA near 0.5910. On the downside, initial support stands at 0.5832, followed by a lower horizontal floor at 0.5813, which guards the latest swing area. A clear drop through 0.5813 would expose fresh lows and extend the prevailing bearish tone, while holding above this band would keep the pair confined in a tight consolidation below resistance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)