United States Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Sticks to gains above 99.00; US PCE eyed

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USD Index gains positive traction for the third straight day amid further Mideast escalations.
Hawkish Fed expectations further support the index as bulls now look to important US data.
The bullish technical setup further backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts some follow-through buying for the third straight day and climbs to a fresh high since April 4, around the 99.54 area on Thursday. The index, however, retreats slightly during the early European session and currently trades around the 99.35 region, still up nearly 0.15% for the day, as bulls turn cautious ahead of the US macro data.

Thursday's US economic docket features the Preliminary Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The latter is considered as the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge and would influence market expectations about the policy path, which, in turn, will provide a fresh impetus to the US Dollar (USD). In the meantime, bets that the Fed will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year and further escalation of tensions in the Middle East continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback.

From a technical perspective, the near-term bias leans bullish as the DXY holds above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting the broader uptrend remains supported despite recent consolidation. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned mildly positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 58. This further hints at constructive but not overextended upside momentum and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-period EMA around 98.81, where a break would weaken the current constructive tone and expose a bigger corrective risk toward prior lows not visible on this chart snapshot. As long as the index defends this underlying demand zone, the technical backdrop favors further recovery attempts toward psychological and prior swing barriers above 99.50, even if short-term pullbacks emerge along the way.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

DXY 4-hour chart

Economic Indicator

Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.