USD/CHF climbs as US Dollar recovers, Swiss data disappoints

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USD/CHF trades slightly higher on Friday, around 0.8060, up 0.15% at the time of writing. The pair remains on track for a weekly gain, supported by the persistent weakness of the US Dollar (USD) amid growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

USD/CHF edges higher, supported by a mild late-week recovery in the US Dollar.
Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continue to cap any sustained USD rebound.
Weak Swiss data and a Swiss National Bank expected to keep rates at 0.00% weigh on the Franc.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is heading toward its worst weekly performance since July, despite a modest rebound on Friday driven by firmer US Treasury yields. Investors continue to price in substantial monetary easing over the next 12 months. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting now stands at 85%, compared with less than 40% one month ago.

This dynamic is reinforced by dovish comments from several Fed officials and this week’s soft US Retail Sales data. Speculation within the National Economic Council (NEC), suggesting that Kevin Hassett may emerge as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell in May, also fuels expectations of a prolonged easing cycle through 2026. In this context, US Dollar rallies are likely to remain contained unless the macroeconomic backdrop shifts meaningfully.

In Switzerland, the Swiss Franc (CHF) lacks momentum following economic indicators that came in well below expectations. Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 0.5% (QoQ) in Q3, below the 0.4% contraction consensus and after a revision of the previous quarter to 0.2%. Growth YoY slowed to 0.5%, far below the previously reported 1.3%. The only positive signal came from the KOF Leading Indicator, which improved to 101.7 from 101.03, slightly above consensus. Still, the data confirms a slowdown in the Swiss economy, reinforcing expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may keep its policy rate at 0.00% potentially through 2027, according to several analysts.

Overall, the environment continues to favour USD/CHF upside, although the pair remains sensitive to shifts in US monetary policy expectations.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.25%	0.21%	-0.08%	0.02%	0.11%	0.25%	0.13%
EUR	-0.25%		-0.03%	-0.33%	-0.20%	-0.14%	0.00%	-0.12%
GBP	-0.21%	0.03%		-0.27%	-0.20%	-0.14%	0.04%	-0.09%
JPY	0.08%	0.33%	0.27%		0.10%	0.19%	0.32%	0.20%
CAD	-0.02%	0.20%	0.20%	-0.10%		0.09%	0.21%	0.08%
AUD	-0.11%	0.14%	0.14%	-0.19%	-0.09%		0.14%	-0.01%
NZD	-0.25%	-0.01%	-0.04%	-0.32%	-0.21%	-0.14%		-0.12%
CHF	-0.13%	0.12%	0.09%	-0.20%	-0.08%	0.01%	0.12%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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